Welcome back.

This is the Friday, October 24th, 2025 installment of Market Plus.

Joining us now Matt Bennett.

Still with us, Matt, I apologize to you already off air about going way out of order, but these are times that are different.

Yeah, I mean, we we know that posts can make a difference, but this weeks post really kind of caught the attention of those in rural America.

I know Ross Baldwin in Utah quite often.

Who was the next one to call you about what happened?

Customers or other analysts?

>> I had a couple of customers, a couple of guys that are big cattle feeders, very concerned.

You know, I think where the concern comes in is, hey, I just filled all my pens, you know, and you fill your pens, you buy cheap corn and you can't hedge fats and make money with the cattle feeders.

Went out on faith their whole career.

And this could be that time if, for instance, we would open the border to where that does not work and it doesn't work to a really bad tune.

And so, you know, when that post came out, I think a whole host of things, one thing we didn't talk about in the normal segment, Paul, is, is that if I'm a fund trader who's been long cattle for quite some time, and I see what a post can do, what is my appetite for staying long cattle?

If someone says the president, if you will, we're going to drive beef prices down one way or the other, which is essentially what he's saying.

What is your appetite for staying long?

Beef?

I mean, what is your appetite for staying long fat cattle or feeders?

>> Well, and that is a very interesting point because that was talking points.

I was going to ask you about in both wheat and maybe to an extent in soybeans, how the shorts were doing some covering.

So the funds are active, they are absolutely tied into everything that's going on too.

>> Oh, yeah.

I mean, they're absolutely paying attention to what's going on here.

And clearly they're just sitting here waiting to see what's going to happen with soybeans.

I mean, because if you look at the world stocks of soybeans, they're not burdensome.

They're ample, don't get me wrong.

But that was after Brazil just raised a massive soybean crop.

Okay.

And so if if we get into a weather issue and we somehow some way, I'm not saying it's going to happen.

Trump pulls this off and we find out that China's going to buy 70% of what they've been buying in the last five years.

I don't know what the number is, but if you get some sort of a deal like that, then this bean market could get pretty interesting pretty quickly, which would be supportive for other things as well.

If we if we look at it, take November beans and establish them safely above $11.

And I do think that acreage switch is something that's going to be talked about greatly.

>> That's interesting to think about because they're in the four month chart that's on the screen right now.

We've not even sniffed $11 in quite some time.

That would be enough to to upset the acre.

Thought for next year.

You think.

>> Well, I think if you if you establish yourself above $11 on Nov 26, then you start.

I mean, because right now, if you look at the analysis on corn after corn, corn following beans and beans, following corn, nothing looks good, Paul.

And I mean, that's putting it mildly.

You know, I'm a grower and so I understand this.

If we're looking at just normal land costs, none of those look all that great.

Right.

And so your normal acreage switch should be that we're going to increase bean acres just because your your guys that say I'm always going to be corn beans corn, beans that's going to boost that bean acreage somewhat.

And what's the appetite for corn on corn with some of the figures that we've seen as far as the budgets go, I've seen it myself.

I see what fertilizer I mean, I backed off of fertilizer this year and I'm not ashamed to say it.

I mean, my fertility is in pretty good shape.

I can't pay $900 for for Dapper Map.

I just can't do it.

It doesn't work when you throw it in a cash flow.

So I do think that, you know, some sort of an acreage shift is probably imminent.

>> All right.

Let's talk about piles a little bit, Phil in Ontario had this question that he sent in Thursday before we saw these posts.

He says grain markets have had modest rallies lately.

Can we expect more of that or are big supplies just too big to ignore?

>> Yeah, I mean, Phil always comes up with a good question and that is a good question.

But in Phil's watched this market enough to know that again for 25 to 430 days, corn just stopped this thing dead in its tracks.

What?

You're going to have to have something of a structural shift in mentality, in my opinion, to safely go above that.

Is the farmer going to be tight fisted for now?

Yes.

But we all know that we all have a lot of obligations coming up, and the liquidity of the grower has dipped substantially.

All of us have participated in this.

It's not been fun.

So we are going to have to come up with some money at some point.

And I'm afraid once again, that we're going to reward the market any time it gets maybe to a little higher level than what it did before.

So I don't know that you can expect substantially more.

I think as you get harvest wrapped up, like in my area, we've seen basis really improve.

I've talked to growers that are in Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota.

Hey, my base is still stinks.

Well, harvest is still going.

And in some areas where the corn is really good, of course they're running out of space.

If you're running out of space, your basis isn't going to be very good.

But as you see harvest wind down, that might be where your corn is going to be worth a little bit more as they try to latch on to those last bushels.

But I don't think we can expect the markets, the commodity markets to rally substantially right now.

I just think there's too much corn.

>> You're alluding a little bit to our next question here.

So let's do Gary in Wisconsin.

If we could.

Will the recent weather in China change the way that they negotiate with the U.S., or are their stocks large enough that they have no immediate needs?

>> Well, they certainly don't have a shortage of stocks, but they also like keeping a certain amount of stocks.

And so that's a that's a great question.

And that story is just really started to emerge this week that they're having such an issue.

Being able to get the crop out of the field, that they're afraid some of it's going to rot, and you're going to see sprouting.

Of course, we've seen this type of thing happen here before as well.

Is that going to change their negotiation?

Well, if it's widespread enough, by all means.

The thing is, is that how good is the information?

Do we know for sure how widespread it is?

I mean, are we is someone crying wolf?

I don't know, I don't know.

That's the tough thing to say.

I do know that looking at the weather, there's no doubt they've had a substantial amount of rainfall.

>> And we have to look at China's fundamental news, because the technical things or I guess the reports, the data, that's what we can never truly trust is, I think, what you're alluding.

>> To, I mean, you just never really know.

I mean, we know what the weather is.

We know they're struggling with it.

Right.

But how widespread is it?

I don't know, as far as how much it's impacted their harvest, but certainly if it affects them, Paul, it's going to change their mentality somewhat because they don't want their stocks to dip below certain levels.

>> Well, nobody's getting government reports from us either right now.

So Keith in Minnesota wants to know, has the lack of government reports affected the fundamental analysis of market participants?

If it has, what alternatives can be used in place of these reports?

>> In all honesty, I don't know that it's affected it as much as as people might have thought it would.

I mean, there's a lot of sensationalizing that goes on around this.

I mean, do we want to see the number?

Yeah, absolutely.

I want to see is the USDA going to come down a little bit in October?

Because as of October 1st, there was a lot of harvest data, and you would have had a much better number as of November 1st, no doubt about it.

Harvest is not finished, but it's certainly close to the finish line.

As of November 1st, we would have really good data to to understand more about what this crop is, but what are the other places to look?

Well, I want to look at what are Spread's doing.

What's the basis doing that tells me a lot about what is the end user doing to try to latch on to bushels.

And so like I said before, where basis has really gotten a lot better, that doesn't necessarily mean that the crop isn't as big.

We have to be really careful in that.

I think there's going to be more farmer ownership of corn.

I mean, the farmer was historically undersold coming into this year.

And then they saw those big spreads.

They saw that there was pretty darn good carry, not even close to full carry.

But you know, when you're talking 30, $0.35 on corn, 55, $0.60 on beans, that's enough to catch a farmer's attention to July Nov to July.

Farmers are trying to figure out how can I keep ownership of this corn in my possession, because we all know that cash ownership is worth a great deal.

>> So what you're saying if I get this, the co-op, the buyer, the bidder, wherever it is your end user is part of your information.

So we're just not without government and government reports.

We don't have that other leg of information because business is still happening.

Things are still being bought.

The ethanol plant still is calling producers at time to to purchase.

It's just one less piece of information.

It's not a grind to a halt.

>> It's not a grind to a halt.

And by the way, I learned markets.

Paul, is watch the basis, watch the spreads.

Those two things will tell you a lot about what's going on with these markets.

I do think it's a little more complicated.

Once again, whenever we've got all these guys and gals trying to figure out ways to sock stuff in every nook and cranny they possibly can, I've heard of guys putting stuff in government storage bins that they hadn't put in for 15 years.

You know, I mean, it's going on.

>> Yeah.

Long ago, I remember even longer than that.

I remember some of the ones we held on to those for a long time, different time that we did.

That last thing is a little bit to reiterate some of your basis comments.

And Mike and Iowa wants to know here, Matt, basis is still close to $0.40 under where he's at.

Have an ethanol plant and two big feed mills close to me within five miles.

I'm planning on storing.

What are your thoughts?

>> He's planning on storing on the farmer at their elevator.

I'm assuming he's planning on storing at his elevator.

Yeah, or at his?

At his.

>> Answer both ways.

>> Well, I mean, if it's if you're storing a home, then then by all means, we're gonna need cash at some point.

I understand that, but the longer you can hold out, the better.

The farther he gets away from harvest.

I think basis is going to improve to a degree.

Now, is it going to wildly improve?

I'm not sure about that.

But I can tell you, for instance, in my part of the world, like that ATM Decatur from the start of harvest till now, we've seen basis improve 30 to $0.40.

I think that that's something that you will see in other areas.

Is it going to be that much?

I don't know if it will be 30 to $0.40 now if it's in the elevator.

The problem is they've already got your corn.

Right.

And so I mean, we've heard about oh, we've got GDP, you know, and I know people won't like this in the elevator world, but I always say there's nothing free about free deep because you don't have your corn anymore.

You don't have your beans anymore.

And your bargaining power is completely gone.

But if you put it in the elevator, you got to understand.

I mean, if you're going to hold it all the way till spring or summer, you're looking at 50, 60, $0.70 on beans, maybe $0.50 on corn.

Be careful wrapping up too much in storage.

>> Do you have a good harvest?

>> It was good.

It was good.

It was better than expected.

You know, we went again ten, 11 weeks without any rainfall.

We didn't expect to see corn yields close to APH, which is what we were able to be blessed with.

Early beans, early planted beans, April beans were fantastic.

Again, not as good as we've had the last few years, but really good.

And then late May beans.

Not very good at all.

>> All you can do is smile, and that means you're going to have to make another couple of speeches.

>> It is what it is.

Yeah.

>> You got to work.

>> A little harder.

I'm open for hire.

>> All right.

Very good.

Matt Bennett.

Good to see you.

Thank you so much for making the trip.

>> Yep.

Absolutely.

Thanks for having me.

>> Looking good.

I like navy blue.

Next week we wrap up the competition for bragging rights in the world of the giant pumpkin.

And we'll also have the analysis with Sue Martin on Paul Yeager from all of us here at Iowa PBS and Market to Market.

We say thank you for joining us and have a great week.